Decisions Under Certainty, Risk and Uncertainty

(It will be a good idea to read the previous posts on the subject for better understanding).

Knowledge of Outcomes

An outcome defines what will happen if a particular alternative or course of action is chosen. Knowledge of outcomes is important when there are multiple alternatives. In the analysis of decision making, three types of knowledge with respect to outcomes are usually distinguished:

1. Certainty: Complete and accurate knowledge of outcome of each alternative. There is only one outcome for each alternative.
2. Risk: Multiple possible outcomes of each alternative can be identified and a probability of occurrence can be attached to each.
3. Uncertainty: Multiple outcomes for each alternative can be identified but there is no knowledge of the probability to be attached to each.

Taking Decisions Under Certainty

• If the outcomes are known and the values of the outcomes are certain, the task of the decision maker is to compute the optimal alternative or outcome with some optimization criterion in mind.
• As an example: if the optimization criterion is least cost and you are considering two different brands of a product, which appear to be equal in value to you, one costing 20% less than the other, then, all other things being equal, you will choose the less expensive brand.
• However, decision making under certainty is rare because all other things are rarely equal.
• Linear programming is one of the techniques for finding an optimal solution under certainty. Linear programming problems normally need computations with the help of a computer.

Taking Decisions Under Risk

• The making of decisions under risk, when only the probabilities of various outcomes are known, is similar to certainty.
• Instead of optimizing the outcomes, the general rule is to optimize the expected outcome.
• As an example: if you are faced with a choice between two actions one offering a 1% probability of a gain of $10000 and the other a 50% probability of a gain of $400, you as a rational decision maker will choose the second alternative because it has the higher expected value of $200 as against $100 from the first alternative.

Taking Decisions Under Uncertainty

• Decisions under uncertainty (outcomes known but not the probabilities) must be handled differently because, without probabilities, the optimization criteria cannot be applied.
• Some estimated probabilities are assigned to the outcomes and the decision making is done as if it is decision making under risk.

(Refer our High Quality Management Encyclopedia “Management Universe” at: http://management-universe.blogspot.com/)

Books Suggested for Your Professional/Personal Library (All the titles as paperbacks and eBooks available online from Amazon)

Management, Business, Self-help and Personality Development Books

1. HSoftware (Human Software) (The Only Key to Higher Effectiveness)

2. Sensitive Stories of Corporate World (Management Case Studies)

3. Classic Management Games, Exercises, Energizers and Icebreakers

4. Classic Management Games, Exercises, Energizers and Icebreakers (Volume 2)

5. Classic Team Building Games, Exercises, Energizers and Icebreakers

6. 101 Classic Management Games, Exercises, Energizers and Icebreakers

7. Stress? No Way!! (Handbook on Stress Management)

8. HSoftware (Shyam Bhatawdekar’s Effectiveness Model)

9. Competency Management (Competency Matrix and Competencies)

10. Soft Skills You Can’t Do Without (Goal Setting, Time Management, Assertiveness and Anger Management)

11. Essentials of Work Study (Method Study and Work Measurement)

12. Essentials of Time Management (Taking Control of Your Life)

13. Essentials of 5S Housekeeping

14. Essentials of Quality Circles

15. Essentials of Goal Setting

16. Essentials of Anger Management

17. Essentials of Assertive Behavior

18. Essentials of Performance Management & Performance Appraisal

19. Health Essentials (Health Is Wealth)

20. The Romance of Intimacy (How to Enhance Intimacy in a Relationship?)

Novels, Stories, Biographies and Travelogues

21. The Peace Crusaders (Novel: how the peace crusaders established permanent peace on a war strewn planet?)

22. Love Knows No Bounds (Novel: a refreshingly different love story. Also available with the title “Good People”)

23. Funny (and Not So Funny) Short Stories

24. Stories Children Will Love (Volume 1: Bhanu-Shanu-Kaju-Biju and Dholu Ram Gadbad Singh)

25. My Father (Biography)

26. Travelogue: Scandinavia, Russia

27. Travelogue: Europe

For More Guidance, Assistance, Training and Consultation

Contact: prodcons@prodcons.com

Training on all the modules of "Human Resource Management" is provided by Prodcons Group's Mr Shyam Bhatawdekar and/or Dr (Mrs) Kalpana Bhatawdekar, eminent management educationists, management consultants and trainers- par excellence, with distinction of having trained over 150,000 people from around 250 organizations. Implementation of various HR system is also facilitated by the team of Prodcons Group.

Also refer: http://prodcons-group.blogspot.com/, http://training-development-function.blogspot.com/ and http://productivity-consultants.blogspot.com/

Other Topics of Interest

All Management Topics (General Management, Marketing and Sales, Service, Operations/Manufacturing, Quality, Maintenance, Human Resources, Finance and Accounts, Information Technology, Life Management)
The topics are listed in alphabetic order:

(Home Pages for All the Management Topics) http://management-universe.blogspot.com/ and http://management-universe-enotes.blogspot.com/
(Building Leadership and Management) http://shyam.bhatawdekar.com
(Alphabetic List of All Management Topics) http://management-enotes.blogspot.com/
(Home Page for Writings of Shyam Bhatawdekar) http://writings-of-shyam.blogspot.com/
(5S Housekeeping) http://5s-housekeeping.blogspot.com/
(Activity Based Costing- ABC) http://activitybased-costing.blogspot.com/
(Advertising) http://advertising-mass-communication.blogspot.com/
(Anger Management) http://controlling-anger.blogspot.com/
(Assertiveness) http://assertiveness-skill.blogspot.com/
(Assessment Centers) http://assessment-centers.blogspot.com/
(A to Z of Management Systems) http://a-z-management-systems.blogspot.com/
(A to Z of Quality Techniques) http://a-z-quality-techniques.blogspot.com/
(Balanced Scorecard) http://balanced-scorecard-system.blogspot.com/
(Basic Statistics) http://statistics-basic.blogspot.com/
(Behavioral Safety) http://behavioral-safety.blogspot.com/
(Benchmarking) http://benchmarking-system.blogspot.com/
(Body Language or Non-verbal Communication) http://body-language-communication.blogspot.com/
(Books- Best Management Books) http://best-management-books.blogspot.com/
(Boundaryless) http://shyambhatawdekar.blogspot.com/
(Brainstorming) http://brainstorming-technique.blogspot.com/
(Business Ethics and Ethics in Management) http://business-management-ethics.blogspot.com/
(Business Plan) http://business-plan-document.blogspot.com/
(Business Process Reengineering- BPR) http://business-process-reengineering-bpr.blogspot.com/
(Career Planning within Organizations) http://organizational-career-planning.blogspot.com/
(Case Method) http://case-method.blogspot.com/
(Case Studies in Management) http://corporate-case-studies.blogspot.com/
(CEO Roles, Qualities and Competencies) http://ceo-qualities.blogspot.com/
(Change Management) http://manage-change.blogspot.com/
(Coaching) http://coaching-skill.blogspot.com/
(Communication) http://communication-for-business.blogspot.com/
(Competencies- Life Management) http://shyam-bhatawdekar.blogspot.com/
(Competency Matrix) http://competency-matrix.blogspot.com/
(Conflict Management) http://manage-conflict.blogspot.com/
(Corporate Governance) http://corporate-governance-policy.blogspot.com/
(Cost Management) http://cost-management-control.blogspot.com/
(Cost of Quality- COQ) http://cost-of-quality.blogspot.com/
(Counseling at Workplace) http://counseling-skill.blogspot.com/
(Creativity and Innovation) http://creativity-management.blogspot.com/
(Critical Thinking skills) http://critical-thinking-skills.blogspot.com/
(Cross Cultural Etiquette and Manners) http://cross-cultural-etiquette.blogspot.com/
(Customer Orientation) http://customer-orientation.blogspot.com/
(Customer Relationship management- CRM) http://customer-relationship-crm.blogspot.com/
(Daily Management) http://daily-management.blogspot.com/
(Decision Making) http://decision-making-function.blogspot.com/
(Delegation) http://delegation-skill.blogspot.com/
(Design for Manufacture) http://design-for-manufacture.blogspot.com/
(Dining Etiquette and Table Manners) http://dining-manners.blogspot.com/
(Discipline at Work) http://discipline-at-work.blogspot.com/
(Do This Today) http://do-this-today.blogspot.com/
(Dream Exotic) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/my-exotic-dream/6txz9nck6g3/8#
(Effectiveness and Efficiency) http://effectiveness-efficiency.blogspot.com/
(Effectiveness Management: HSoftware) http://humansoftware.blogspot.com/
(Efficiency Techniques: Work study: Motion and Time Study) http://work-study-measurement.blogspot.com/
(Efficient Work Methods or Practices) http://efficient-work-methods.blogspot.com/
(Email Etiquette) http://email-etiquette-manners.blogspot.com/
(Emotional Intelligence) http://emotional-quotient-intelligence.blogspot.com/
(Empowerment) http://employee-empowerment.blogspot.com/
(Enterprise Resource Planning- ERP) http://erp-management.blogspot.com/
(Entrepreneurship and Entrepreneur) http://entrepreneurship-entrepreneur.blogspot.com/
(Executive Etiquette and Manners) http://executive-manners.blogspot.com/
(Exit Interview) http://exit-interview.blogspot.com/
(Financial Ratios and Financial Ratio Analysis) http://financial-ratios.blogspot.com/
(Financial Services) http://finance-related-services.blogspot.com/
(Functions of Management) http://functions-of-management.blogspot.com/
(Gemba Kaizen) http://gemba-kaizen-improvement.blogspot.com/
(Genuine Professional) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/the-genuine-professional/6txz9nck6g3/10#
(Global Mindset) http://global-mindset.blogspot.com/
(Goal/Target Setting) http://goal-target-setting.blogspot.com/
(Group Discussion) http://group-discussion-gd.blogspot.com/
(Group Dynamics) http://group-dynamics-process.blogspot.com/
(How to Be a Good Boss) http://good-boss.blogspot.com/
(How to Get Promoted) http://get-promoted.blogspot.com/
(How to save Money) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/how-to-save-money/6txz9nck6g3/11#
(HR Dynamics) http://hrm-dynamics.blogspot.com/
(HR Strategies and Functions) http://strategic-functions-hrm.blogspot.com/
(Human Capital Architecture) http://human-capital-architecture.blogspot.com/
(Human Relations) http://human-relations-aspect.blogspot.com/
(Human Resource Planning) http://human-resource-planning.blogspot.com/
(Human Software- HSoftware) http://human-software-hsoftware.blogspot.com/
(Internal Motivation or Self Motivation) http://internal-motivation.blogspot.com/
(Interpersonal Relations) http://interpersonal-relations.blogspot.com/
(Interview Skills) http://interviewing-skill.blogspot.com/
(Interview Preparation for Job Seekers) http://interview-preparation-jobs.blogspot.com/
(Interview Questions) http://interview-question-bank.blogspot.com/
(Just in Time Management- JIT) http://just-in-time-management.blogspot.com/
(Kaizen) http://kaizen-improvement.blogspot.com/
(Knowledge Management) http://knowledge-management-initiative.blogspot.com/
(Lead Time Management) http://lead-time-management.blogspot.com/
(Leadership) http://lead-max.blogspot.com/
(Lean Enterprise) http://lean-organization.blogspot.com/
(Learning Organization) http://learning-organization-profile.blogspot.com/
(Life Management: Competencies) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/competency-matrix/6txz9nck6g3/4#
(Life Management: Effectiveness Management: HSoftware) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/management-in-life-profession-family/6txz9nck6g3/3#
(Life Management: I Am Liberated) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/i-am-liberated/6txz9nck6g3/6#
(Life Positions and OKness) http://life-positions.blogspot.com/
(Life Skills) http://life-skills-competencies.blogspot.com/
(Listening) http://listen-skills.blogspot.com/
(Management Anecdotes) http://management-anecdotes.blogspot.com/
(Management Book- Best Books) http://best-management-books.blogspot.com/
(Management Information System- MIS) http://management-information-system-mis.blogspot.com/
(Managing/conducting Meetings) http://managing-meetings.blogspot.com/
(Management Notes- Free and Authentic) http://authentic-management-notes.blogspot.com/
(Marginal Utility) http://marginal-utility-concept.blogspot.com/
(Marketing Management Overview) http://marketing-management-overview.blogspot.com/
(Marketing Management Tasks) http://marketing-management-tasks.blogspot.com/
(Marketing Orientation) http://marketing-orientation.blogspot.com/
(Market Research) http://market-research-function.blogspot.com/
(Market Segmentation) http://market-segment.blogspot.com/
(Mentoring) http://mentor-mentorship.blogspot.com/
(Motivation) http://motivation-people.blogspot.com/
(Musings of Shyam Bhatawdekar on every topic on the earth) http://shyam-bhatawdekar-musings.blogspot.com/
(Negotiation Skills) http://negotiating-skills.blogspot.com/
(Negotiation Tactics) http://negotiation-tactics.blogspot.com/
(Objection Handling) http://objection-handling.blogspot.com/
(Organization Development- OD) http://organization-development-od.blogspot.com/
(Organizational Culture) http://organizational-culture-values.blogspot.com/
(Out of Box Ideas) http://wow-idea.blogspot.com/
(Ownership on Job) http://job-ownership.blogspot.com/
(Paradigm and Paradigm Shift) http://paradigm-mindset.blogspot.com/
(Performance Management and Appraisal) http://performance-appraisal-management.blogspot.com/
(Personality) http://human-personality.blogspot.com/
(Positive Strokes) http://positive-strokes.blogspot.com/
(Presentation Skills) http://presentation-effectiveness.blogspot.com/
(Problem Solving) http://problem-solving-skill.blogspot.com/
(Profit Improvement) http://profit-improvement.blogspot.com/
(Project Management) http://management-of-project.blogspot.com/
(Public Speaking) http://public-speak-skill.blogspot.com/
(Quality Circles History) http://quality-circles-history.blogspot.com/
(Quality Circles) http://quality-circles.blogspot.com/
(Quality Function Deployment- QFD and House of Quality) http://quality-function-deployment.blogspot.com/
(Quality Gurus) http://quality-gurus.blogspot.com/
(Recession) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/recession/6txz9nck6g3/7#
(Recession Management) http://recession-management.blogspot.com/
(Recession and Opportunities) http://knol.google.com/k/kalpana-bhatawdekar/recession-and-opportunities/1268ytxl8r5dc/1
(Recruitment and Selection) http://recruitment-selection.blogspot.com/
(Research Methodology) http://research-work-methodology.blogspot.com/
(Safety and Health Management) http://safety-health-management.blogspot.com/
(Sales/Selling Process) http://selling-process.blogspot.com/
(Sales Promotion) http://sales-promotion.blogspot.com/
(Self-concept) http://self-concept-image.blogspot.com/
(Self-concept) http://self-image-concept.blogspot.com/
(Self-concept) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/self-concept/6txz9nck6g3/12#
(Self Motivation or Internal Motivation) http://internal-motivation.blogspot.com/
(Self-confidence) http://self-confidence-improvement.blogspot.com/
(Self Development) http://managing-self.blogspot.com/
(Shyam Bhatawdekar’s Articles on Management) http://writings-of-shyam.blogspot.com/
(Six Sigma) http://six-sigma-system.blogspot.com/
(Six Thinking Hats) http://six-thinking-hats.blogspot.com/
(Soft Skills) http://soft-skills-competencies.blogspot.com/
(Spiritual Quotient/Intelligence) http://spiritual-quotient.blogspot.com/
(Statistics- Basic) http://statistics-basic.blogspot.com/
(Strategic Management) http://strategic-managing.blogspot.com/
(Stress Management) http://management-of-stress.blogspot.com/
(Stress Management) http://managing-stress-strain.blogspot.com/
(Success in Life or Success) http://success-achievement.blogspot.com/
(Success in Life or Success) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/success-in-life/6txz9nck6g3/14#view
(Supply Chain Management) http://manage-supply-chain.blogspot.com/
(Supply and Demand) http://supply-demand-laws.blogspot.com/
(Talent Management) http://managing-talent.blogspot.com/
(Team Building) http://team-building-working.blogspot.com/
(Telephone Etiquette) http://telephone-etiquette.blogspot.com/
(Three Sixty Degrees Appraisal System) http://three-sixty-degrees-feedback.blogspot.com/
(Time Management) http://time-life-management.blogspot.com/
(Total Productive Maintenance- TPM) http://total-productive-maintenance.blogspot.com/
(Total Quality Management- TQM) http://total-quality-concept.blogspot.com/
(Training and Development) http://training-function.blogspot.com/
(Trainers’ Qualities) http://trainers-qualities.blogspot.com/
(Transaction Analysis- TA) http://transaction-analysis.blogspot.com/
(TRIZ- Inventive Problem Solving) http://triz-problem-solving.blogspot.com/
(Value Engineering/Analysis) http://value-engineering-analysis.blogspot.com/
(Winners and Losers) http://winners-losers.blogspot.com/
(Work Study: Method Study and Work Measurement) http://work-study-measurement.blogspot.com/
(Work Methods or Practices: Efficient) http://efficient-work-methods.blogspot.com/
(World Class Manufacturing) http://world-class-manufacturing.blogspot.com/
(Writings of Shyam Bhatawdekar on Management) http://writings-of-shyam.blogspot.com/
(Written Communication) http://written-communication.blogspot.com/
(Zero Based Budgeting) http://zero-based-budgeting.blogspot.com/

Counseling: General and Psychological(Anger Management) http://controlling-anger.blogspot.com/
(Children’s Behavior Problems) http://child-behavior-problems.blogspot.com/
(Cholesterol Control) http://controlling-cholesterol.blogspot.com/
(Counseling: Psychological) http://counselingfamily.blogspot.com/
(Counseling: Psychological) http://counseling-family.blogspot.com/
(Cross Cultural Etiquette) http://cross-cultural-etiquette.blogspot.com/
(Do This Today) http://do-this-today.blogspot.com/
(Emotions) http://emotion-feeling.blogspot.com/
(Executive Etiquette and Manners) http://executive-manners.blogspot.com/
(Exercises) http://exercises-plan.blogspot.com/
(Family Counseling) http://family-harmony.blogspot.com/
(Health: Homeopathy) http://homeopathy-medicines.blogspot.com/
(LifeManagement: Competencies) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/competency-matrix/6txz9nck6g3/4#
(Life Management: Effectiveness Management: HSoftware) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/management-in-life-profession-family/6txz9nck6g3/3#
(Life management: I Am Liberated) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/i-am-liberated/6txz9nck6g3/6#view
(Marriage Counseling) http://marriage-counsel.blogspot.com/
(Ownership on Job) http://job-ownership.blogspot.com/
(Parental Responsibilities) http://parental-responsibilities.blogspot.com/
(Personality) http://human-personality.blogspot.com/
(Qualities of Spouse) http://spouse-qualities.blogspot.com/
(Quit Smoking) http://quit-smoking-plan.blogspot.com/
(Self Development) http://managing-self.blogspot.com/
(Self-confidence) http://self-confidence-improvement.blogspot.com/
(Spiritual Quotient/Intelligence) http://spiritual-quotient.blogspot.com/
(Stress Management) http://managing-stress-strain.blogspot.com/
(Stress Management) http://management-of-stress.blogspot.com/
(Success in Life or Success) http://success-achievement.blogspot.com/
(Success in Life or Success) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/success-in-life/6txz9nck6g3/14#view
(Swine Flu and Its Prevention) http://swine-flu-precaution.blogspot.com/
(Telephone Etiquette) http://telephone-etiquette.blogspot.com/
(Walking) http://walking-plan.blogspot.com/
(Winners and Losers) http://winners-losers.blogspot.com/

About All the Products
(Home Page for All Products) http://products-all.blogspot.com/
(Cars) http://cars-products.blogspot.com/
(Chocolates) http://chocolates-products.blogspot.com/
(Flowers) http://flowers-products.blogspot.com/
(Greeting Cards) http://greeting-cards-products.blogspot.com/
(Mobile Phones) http://mobilephones-products.blogspot.com/

Home Tips(Home Page for All Home Tips) http://home-tips-tricks.blogspot.com/
(Do This Today) http://do-this-today.blogspot.com/
(Entertainment: Movies) http://popular-movies.blogspot.com/
(Oscar Award Movies) http://oscar-award-movies.blogspot.com/
(Entertainment: Recommended Hindi Movies) http://unforgettable-hindi-movies.blogspot.com/
(Entertainment- Hindi Movies of Your Choice) http://hindi-movies-choice.blogspot.com/
(Plagiarized, Copied or Inspired Hindi Movies) http://copied-hindi-movies.blogspot.com/
(Health: Homeopathy) http://homeopathy-medicines.blogspot.com/
(Housekeeping at Home) http://5s-housekeeping-home.blogspot.com/
(How to Save Money) http://save-money-ideas.blogspot.com/ or http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/how-to-save-money/6txz9nck6g3/11#
(Jewelry Design) http://thejewellerydesigner.blogspot.com/
(Recipes: Easy to Cook) http://easytocook-recipes.blogspot.com/
(Recipes: Exotic) http://tastetherecipes.blogspot.com/
(Stories for Children) http://stories-children.blogspot.com/
(Travel and Sightseeing- India) http://india-tours-sightseeing.blogspot.com/
(Travel and Sightseeing- World) http://sightseeing-guide.blogspot.com/
(World Heritage Sites) http://world-heritage-spots.blogspot.com/

General Knowledge and Out of Box Ideas
(General Knowledge- GK) http://general-knowledge-gk.blogspot.com/
(General Knowledge- Top 5 of Everything) http://top-five-everything.blogspot.com/
(General Knowledge- Top 10 of Everything) http://top-ten-anything.blogspot.com/
(Out of Box Ideas) http://wow-idea.blogspot.com/
(Shyam Bhatawdekar’s Knols) http://knol.google.com/k/shyam-bhatawdekar/shyam-bhatawdekar/6txz9nck6g3/1#
(Running Commentary on the Run) http://running-comments.blogspot.com/